Trilateral Bakery Update 10-7-2019

Wheat

  • Rain & snow causing damage to unharvested HRS in US and Canada
  • Hard freeze in Alberta and western Saskatchewan ends crop development
  • SRW ending stocks estimate and stocks in deliverable position at multi-year lows
  • Russia increases 2019 production level again
  • WASDE estimages record large global stocks

Oils

  • SBO consumption continues to outpace production: USDA Aug production August oil production was up 5.4% y/y while stocks were down m/m by 13% and 22% lower y/y
  • NOPA August SBO stocks at 21-month low
  • Malaysian stocks rise 9% m/m on weak exports that dropped 19% m/m
  • India soy production estimated down 18% y/y, should lead to even higher oil imports
  • Spread of ASF throughout SE Asia poses potential threat to meal demand/crush levels. Soymeal exports fell 21%

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